IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON RAINFALL IN THE IRRIGATED INDUS BASIN: A CASE STUDY IN THE LOWER CHENAB CANAL SYSTEM


Muhammad Mohsin Waqas, Yasir Niaz, Haroon Rashid, Muhammad Adnan Bodlah, Sikandar Ali, Hassan Raza, Muhammad Fahad, Ishfaq Ahmad, Syed Hamid Hussain Shah

DOI: 10.26480/bda.01.2020.04.05

ABSTRACT
Impact of climate change on the water resources is considerable for the future policy making. Climate change impact on the irrigated Indus basin is also significant as it is in the upper Indus basin. In hydrological cycle, rainfall is the most important component and has significant contribution in the crop water requirement. Recharge in the aquifer is not a hidden phenomenon during the monsoon period in the irrigated Indus basin. Impact of climate change on the rainfall was studied using the Hadley Climate model version 3 (HadCM3). HadCM3 provides the A2 and B2 scenario and its impact on the future climatic parameters. Statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was used for downscaling the rainfall in the selected area of the Faisalabad irrigation zone. NCEP predictors was used for the assessment of the downscaled data using SDSM. Percentage change in the rainfall was observed for the midcentury (2040-2069) as compared to the base period (1981-2010). Results reveled the increase in the rainfall during the Rabi season. While significant decrease in the rainfall was observed during the monsoon season. Maximum percentage decrease in the rainfall was observed 6.42% and 61.9% in the month of November under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. Similarly, maximum percentage increase in the rainfall was observed 10.4.6% and 101.4% in the month of November under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. Decrease in the rainfall was observed in the months of monsoon and in April. While the increase in the rainfall was observed in the remaining period.

KEYWORDS
Climate Change, HadCM3, SDSM, Rainfall