TREND ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING OF LARGE CARDAMOM AREA, PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTIVITY IN NEPAL USING ARIMA MODEL

Gaurav Thapa and Neha Sah Teli

DOI: 10.26480/bda.02.2025.85.92

ABSTRACT
This study examines the trends and future projections of large cardamom (Amomum subulatum Roxburgh) area, production and productivity in Nepal. Utilizing secondary data from the Nepalese Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development and the Federation of Nepalese Chambers of Commerce and Industry, the research spans from 1994-95 to 2021-22 year. The analysis employs the Mann-Kendall test for trend detection and the ARIMA model for forecasting. The results reveal a stable increase in the area under cultivation and overall production, though productivity per hectare remains relatively constant. Large cardamom is identified as a significant contributor to Nepal’s agricultural GDP and a crucial export commodity. The findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders to develop strategies that support sustainable growth and address challenges such as climate change and market volatility. Advanced statistical models like ARIMA prove essential in enhancing agricultural forecasting and decision-making.

KEYWORDS
Large Cardamom, ARIMA Model, Trend Analysis, Forecasting, Mann-Kendall Test, Agricultural GDP, Export, Climate Change, Market Volatility, Agricultural Forecasting, Sustainable Growth, Policy Development